When Net Zero targets were set out in the Paris Agreement in April 2016, a fundamental part of reaching that goal lay in the decarbonisation of the grid and a dramatic growth in renewable energy production. Yet according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), green energy capacity will not meet the UN’s target to grow threefold by the end of this decade.
Objectives for the expansion of renewable energy supply were established at the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference in late 2023. And there is no doubt that the renewables sector has scaled up dramatically in the last five years. But despite the fact that global renewable energy production is set to increase by an impressive 5,500 GW by 2030, this forecast increase will only amount to an increase of 2.7x rather than the three-fold increase originally targeted.
Increasing green energy infrastructure
Whilst the IEA report findings contain some positive news in terms of renewable energy technology deployment over the next six years, it also highlights significant challenges and barriers which are hampering accelerated growth.
A key area of concern is for countries and governments to press on with modernising and increasing capacity in some 25 million kilometres of electricity grids so that they can cater for the growth and input of renewable resources.
Conversely, the continued driving down of costs of renewables means demand is increasing from both the business sector and domestic markets.
The latest report includes a stand-alone section on renewable fuels such as bioenergy, biogases and e-fuels, although hydrogen is seen as having a negligible influence on renewables growth. These fuels are forecast to play an increasingly important role in decarbonising key industry sectors including construction and transport.
Government interventions to accelerate progress
Government policy trends and interventions are now seen as crucial factors in bridging the gap to hit the target.
As well as policy attention to the integration of renewables into grid infrastructure, the IEA report establishes that the wind sector needs support in moving forward – having faced significant financial pressures of recent years. With the right policy conditions, global wind capacity expansion could double in the next six years compared to the previous six.
Policy trends could also help drive forward solar PV and wind manufacturing, as well as newer technologies such as electrolyser and hydrogen production.
The report also states that new solar capacity has a major role to play. By 2030, it is predicted that solar energy will be responsible for 80% of green energy growth across the world. More widespread adoption of the technology will be due to lower costs, achieved in part by a relaxation in permit timelines and planning criteria.
In short, the key drivers to help stimulate rates of renewable energy growth are likely to be a combination of policy support and cost competitiveness.
Major economies must set the example and lead the way In the coming years, it is expected that China will continue to lead the way in global renewables, with forecasts suggesting that it will be responsible for 60% of worldwide renewable energy capacity expansion by 2030.
Both the United States and the EU are expected to increase the pace of renewable capacity growth twofold by 2030. India is getting in on the act too with the fastest rate of growth in the world’s leading economies.
Make sustainability a priority for your business with carbon emissions reporting. Get in touch with the SmartCarbon team today.