UK emissions are falling but here’s why we can’t rest on our laurels

Progress is being made on the road to Net Zero, but there is still a long way to go

Reaching Net Zero has been a challenging and contentious goal for the UK in recent years, with promises made and then un-made, and policy constantly shifting. What does shift, of course, is the UK’s target of a 68% drop in emissions by 2030.

However, there is no doubt that individuals and organisations around the country are sitting up and taking note in a way that has never been seen before. In fact, there are clear signs that progress is being made and that the targets being set out at government and international level may be changing behaviours.

One indication of this progress can be found in the fact that UK emissions fell last year, as they have done year-on-year since 1990. This promising statistic suggests a step in the right direction for the UK’s Net Zero targets. 

BUT.

While sustainability efforts are starting to pay off, a closer inspection of the data shows us that it’s not time to pat ourselves on the back – as the reduction in emissions may have been caused, in part, by factors outside of the UK’s control.

UK emissions in numbers

The Energy Department (DESNZ) reports that the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions fell in 2023, dropping by 5.4% to 384.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Making up around 12% of the UK’s emissions, the electricity sector also saw greenhouse gas emissions drop by 19.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, emissions in the buildings and product uses sector fell by 6.2%.

In the industrial sector, emissions fell by 8%, while emissions dropped by 1.4% in the domestic transport sector, which includes shipping, road travel, and aviation.

Together, this means that 2023’s fall in greenhouse gas emissions marks a 52.7% overall drop since 1990. According to the Government, Britain is the first major economy to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by half since 1990.  

Reactions to these figures have been mixed

The release of these figures has garnered praise from some and criticism from others, with many questions raised as to whether these drops are solely due to sustainability efforts.

Energy Security Secretary, Claire Coutinho, says:

“This latest drop in our emissions follows the UK’s achievement in becoming the first major economy to halve its polluting carbon emissions. We have done all this whilst growing our economy by 80%, and shielding families from unnecessary costs.”

However, energy analyst for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, Jess Ralston, highlighted that the UK has spent over £100 billion on gas since the start of the energy crisis, saying:

“Most people are really feeling the pinch in their energy bills – so it’s no surprise that expensive energy has meant people use less of it.”

Likewise, policy director at Greenpeace, Doug Parr, says:

“Any fall in UK emissions is much needed, but let’s not fool ourselves that we’re on track to meet our international obligations or our legal carbon budgets by 2030.” 

Outside factors have created accidental action

As Ralston suggests, many experts have questioned the positive spin put on these figures due to the likely influence of the cost of living crisis. In particular, domestic gas drops and drops in the buildings and product uses sectors were highlighted to have been largely the result of high energy prices.

In fact, the largest contributor to the greenhouse gas emissions drop last year was an 11% reduction in gas demand, accounting for two-thirds of the overall decline. This reduction in demand was not the result of climate action, but of rising costs.

Other factors, such as widespread outages in the French nuclear fleet, and high gas prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, also contributed to emission drops.

This may suggest can such drops are circumstantial, rather than being evidence of clear, deliberate, positive change.

Even when taking these figures at face value as a much-needed sign that sustainability is on the rise, the UK cannot afford to slow its efforts in reaching Net Zero.

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