What do the following numbers mean to you? 1.5, 68, 1.2 and 2.4. For some of you, they might not mean anything at all – but we hope that they will after reading this.
The annual COP summit is taking place this month in Glasgow, and negotiations are well underway. For two weeks, these negotiations will cover a myriad of subjects related to the climate emergency, with lots of numbers being presented as world leaders discuss plans to cut emissions.
All of these many facts, figures and statistics can be overwhelming, so the SmartCarbon team has picked out four key figures to focus on and explained why we think they are so important to be aware of:
1.5 Degrees – Our Temperature Threshold
If you have been listening to the news from #COP26, you will have heard of the 1.5 degree temperature cap. This is the global average increase in temperature (above a pre-industrial baseline), that scientists recommend we should not exceed, for the safety of our planet.
Beyond this figure, it is predicted that we could pass a “tipping point” that will trigger irreversible feedback loops, driving further warming and climate catastrophe.
68% – Odds Of Preventing a “Tipping Point”
1.5 degrees has been identified as the line in the sand for the climate crisis, but what chance does our planet have if we stay beneath it?
Scientists say that, if we stay beneath the 1.5 degree threshold, there is a 68% chance that we will avoid the tipping point.
1.2 Degrees – The Current Global Temperature Increase
Staying beneath the threshold is the goal, but in order to visualise what that means for the planet, it’s important to know where we are now.
At the moment, the average global temperature increase (above pre-industrial levels) is sitting at 1.2 degrees. However, there is inertia in the system, meaning that temperatures will continue to rise for several decades, even when we stop emitting more greenhouse gases.
What does this mean? Put simply, it means we must act now. In the UK we are predicted to burn our remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees within the next 3-5 years.
2.4 Degrees – The Current Trajectory
Our fourth and final figure may be the most worrying of all. According to scientists, if every country hits all of the pledges that are currently on the table for discussion at COP26, the best-case scenario is for our global temperature increase to be sitting at 2.4 degrees.
So, having considered all of these figures, do you think this is good enough? What about the 0.9 degree difference? Does that matter? What if some countries don’t meet their pledges? Essentially we are on track to double the climate change impacts we currently see at 1.2.
All thoughts welcome.